Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.43 – 45.13

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 113.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.7 ±20.2

7117Robotic Dragons

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 122.9Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 76

10317CIA Robotics Presents: BIG Furious George

Provisional

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 13.11Rank 23Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

5176RoboBills

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 13.42Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.4 ±16.7

1288RAVEN Robotics

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 8.83Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10322Beyond the Bell

Season APEX 48Event APEX 22.88Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 13.42Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7117, 10317, 5176

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7117, 10317, 5176

Auto

29.3 20%

Teleop

85.1 58%

Endgame

32.1 22%

Strengths

· 7117 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1288, 10322, 3931

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1288, 10322, 3931

Auto

27.4 57%

Teleop

14.6 31%

Endgame

5.8 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.4pts

Blue projected score45.1pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.3
Score range: 29–165
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 91.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.7Season APEX315.4

29.3Auto27.4

85.1Teleop14.6

32.1Endgame5.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	45
teleop	2	80
endgame	24	19
foul	0	15
total	36	159

Result

Final score

36 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 113.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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