Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.39 – 34.26

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 6.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131 ±18.5

3397Robolions

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 20.13Rank 33Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5060IgKnight

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 24.14Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6744MEHLVILLE RC

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 10.12Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.8 ±15.6

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 12.26Rank 37Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 20.13Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2408Shrapnel Sergeants

Provisional

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 1.87Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3397, 5060, 6744

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3397, 5060, 6744

Auto

19.2 35%

Teleop

21.1 39%

Endgame

14.2 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4329, 1208, 2408

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4329, 1208, 2408

Auto

9.0 28%

Teleop

14.6 45%

Endgame

9.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.4pts

Blue projected score34.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.1
Score range: 17–71
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 97 vs event baseline 95.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131Season APEX189.8

19.2Auto9

21.1Teleop14.6

14.2Endgame9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	29	14
endgame	22	3
foul	0	0
total	65	32

Result

Final score

65 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 6.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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