Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.47 – 80.11

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.5 ±16.8

3200Raptacon

Season APEX 75.1Event APEX 6.02Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 19.34Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4330Rambunction

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 17.11Rank 15Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.5 ±16.5

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 17.71Rank 17Record 5-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8077DREAM

Provisional

Season APEX 18Event APEX 14.29Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5823ACE

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 48.11Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3200, 9031, 4330

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3200, 9031, 4330

Auto

11.5 29%

Teleop

21.1 53%

Endgame

7.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7472, 8077, 5823

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7472, 8077, 5823

Auto

25.8 32%

Teleop

41.6 52%

Endgame

12.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score42.5pts

Blue projected score80.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.6
Score range: 25–97
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 95.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.5Season APEX198.5

11.5Auto25.8

21.1Teleop41.6

7.1Endgame12.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	21
teleop	42	52
endgame	12	40
foul	5	5
total	73	118

Result

Final score

73 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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