Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.86 – 84.83

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.3 ±17.7

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 120Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7452Dupo Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 50.22Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4314Springfield Urban League Abe-Ro-Bots

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 17.64Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.7 ±16

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 16.29Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2978Cavaliers

Provisional

Season APEX 32Event APEX 18.32Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 50.22Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4500, 7452, 4314

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4500, 7452, 4314

Auto

21.1 12%

Teleop

109.8 61%

Endgame

49.3 27%

Strengths

· 4500 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1982, 2978, 6817

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1982, 2978, 6817

Auto

17.6 22%

Teleop

35.9 46%

Endgame

25.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score187.9pts

Blue projected score84.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103
Score range: 68–205
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 93.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.3Season APEX151.7

21.1Auto17.6

109.8Teleop35.9

49.3Endgame25.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	15
teleop	96	18
endgame	26	20
foul	5	0
total	166	53

Result

Final score

166 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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