Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.3 – 147.09

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.8 ±18.4

7496Robo Indians

Provisional

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 19.04Rank 41Record 1-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 9.91Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10317CIA Robotics Presents: BIG Furious George

Provisional

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 39.35Rank 23Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.8 ±15.6

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 89.53Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 36.64Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7452Dupo Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 20.92Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7496, 1785, 10317

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7496, 1785, 10317

Auto

21.9 32%

Teleop

27.4 41%

Endgame

18.3 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9401, 6817, 7452

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9401, 6817, 7452

Auto

23.1 17%

Teleop

68.5 50%

Endgame

46.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score68.3pts

Blue projected score147.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.8
Score range: 45–170
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 126.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.8Season APEX385.8

21.9Auto23.1

27.4Teleop68.5

18.3Endgame46.4

44Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	18
teleop	0	99
endgame	13	70
foul	0	15
total	36	202

Result

Final score

36 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 43.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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