Final · Finals 1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
362.13 – 208.55
87%13%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
351 – 202
Prediction correct · off by 8.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 801 ±11.7
Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 21.6Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 114.04Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 226.49Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.5 ±11
Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 9.61Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 91.56Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180Event APEX 107.38Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8069, 3931, 1706
81
/ 100 compatProjected
362.1 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 8069, 3931, 1706
Auto
75.5 21%
Teleop
203.7 58%
Endgame
73.0 21%
Strengths
- · 1706 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1982, 9401, 6391
84
/ 100 compatProjected
208.6 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 1982, 9401, 6391
Auto
48.0 25%
Teleop
94.2 49%
Endgame
50.9 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score362.1pts
Blue projected score208.6pts
Red win probability87%
Event bonus sample168alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 153.6
- Score range
- 187–384
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
801Season APEX513.5
75.5Auto48
203.7Teleop94.2
73Endgame50.9
0Consistency13
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 76 | 36 |
| teleop | 209 | 97 |
| endgame | 61 | 49 |
| foul | 5 | 20 |
| total | 351 | 202 |
Result
Final score
351 – 202
Prediction correct · off by 8.8 pts
Match videos
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