Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.59 – 205.19

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

351 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484 ±11.7

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 83.28Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 78.21Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 127.1Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.8 ±13.9

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 134.64Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 24.08Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 46.47Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4624, 2220, 1625

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4624, 2220, 1625

Auto

44.2 15%

Teleop

167.8 58%

Endgame

78.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10435, 7483, 6843

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10435, 7483, 6843

Auto

18.9 9%

Teleop

125.7 62%

Endgame

57.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score288.6pts

Blue projected score205.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.4
Score range: 170–324
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 192.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484Season APEX306.8

44.2Auto18.9

167.8Teleop125.7

78.3Endgame57.1

42Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	20
teleop	176	58
endgame	83	59
foul	15	0
total	351	137

Result

Final score

351 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 65.3 pts

Match videos

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