Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.59 – 221.53

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.6 ±13.3

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 29.94Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 88.37Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 60.28Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.6 ±13.9

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 139.04Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 25.05Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 57.44Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 935, 2704, 4959

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 935, 2704, 4959

Auto

21.8 12%

Teleop

97.1 56%

Endgame

55.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10435, 7483, 757

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10435, 7483, 757

Auto

25.5 12%

Teleop

126.0 59%

Endgame

63.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score178.6pts

Blue projected score221.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.9
Score range: 145–256
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 190.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.6Season APEX319.6

21.8Auto25.5

97.1Teleop126

55.8Endgame63.1

117Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	16
teleop	68	93
endgame	42	68
foul	0	0
total	129	177

Result

Final score

129 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Match videos

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