Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

193.78 – 215.35

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.2 ±12.1

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 80.23Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 64.6Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8740Prepa Tecmilenio - Quantum Force

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 48.95Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±13.9

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 59.13Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 39.26Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 116.96Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5126, 8880, 8740

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5126, 8880, 8740

Auto

33.0 17%

Teleop

123.8 64%

Endgame

35.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1847, 5041, 1810

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1847, 5041, 1810

Auto

45.4 21%

Teleop

120.9 57%

Endgame

46.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score193.8pts

Blue projected score215.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.6
Score range: 160–249
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 190.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.2Season APEX325.1

33Auto45.4

123.8Teleop120.9

35.8Endgame46.1

70Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	43
teleop	107	114
endgame	48	37
foul	10	0
total	196	194

Result

Final score

196 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 11.8 pts

Match videos

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