Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.27 – 197.02

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 250

Prediction missed · off by 70.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.6 ±13.9

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 146.23Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 32.25Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 65.79Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.7 ±12.8

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 5.39Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 96.33Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 95.3Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10435, 7483, 757

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10435, 7483, 757

Auto

25.5 11%

Teleop

148.7 63%

Endgame

60.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10333, 5013, 9410

/ 100 compat

Projected

197 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 5013, 9410

Auto

28.4 15%

Teleop

101.1 54%

Endgame

56.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score244.3pts

Blue projected score197pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.3
Score range: 163–278
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 189.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.6Season APEX344.7

25.5Auto28.4

148.7Teleop101.1

60.9Endgame56.7

27Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	53
teleop	60	125
endgame	70	67
foul	0	5
total	157	250

Result

Final score

157 – 250

Prediction missed · off by 70.1 pts

Match videos

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