Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.02 – 172.73

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.5 ±11

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 47.98Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 127.02Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6017PrepaTec - Cyberius

Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 152.02Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.6 ±13.3

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 29.38Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 86.16Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 57.19Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9316, 2357, 6017

/ 100 compat

Projected

327 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9316, 2357, 6017

Auto

53.5 17%

Teleop

187.5 59%

Endgame

77.8 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 935, 2704, 4959

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 935, 2704, 4959

Auto

21.9 13%

Teleop

92.9 55%

Endgame

53.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score327pts

Blue projected score172.7pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.3
Score range: 139–361
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 188.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.5Season APEX328.6

53.5Auto21.9

187.5Teleop92.9

77.8Endgame53

52Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	22
teleop	228	110
endgame	117	68
foul	5	0
total	409	200

Result

Final score

409 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 pts

Match videos

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