Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

218.67 – 263.53

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 44.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±13.9

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 119.93Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 59.88Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 38.86Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484 ±11.7

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 75.56Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 69.93Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 118.04Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1810, 1847, 5041

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1810, 1847, 5041

Auto

44.6 21%

Teleop

126.4 59%

Endgame

44.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4624, 2220, 1625

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4624, 2220, 1625

Auto

38.0 14%

Teleop

157.8 59%

Endgame

72.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score218.7pts

Blue projected score263.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.9
Score range: 185–298
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 187.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.1Season APEX484

44.6Auto38

126.4Teleop157.8

44Endgame72.3

64Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	73
teleop	95	175
endgame	55	85
foul	0	0
total	200	333

Result

Final score

200 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 44.1 pts

Match videos

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