Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
323.98 – 294.04
59%41%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
340 – 284
Prediction correct · off by 13 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.5 ±11
Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 125.62Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 150.97Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 47.39Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484 ±11.7
Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 84.25Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 81.01Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 128.78Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2357, 6017, 9316
83
/ 100 compatProjected
324 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 2357, 6017, 9316
Auto
57.8 18%
Teleop
176.7 55%
Endgame
84.3 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4624, 2220, 1625
84
/ 100 compatProjected
294 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 4624, 2220, 1625
Auto
52.9 18%
Teleop
164.3 56%
Endgame
73.9 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.5
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score324pts
Blue projected score294pts
Red win probability59%
Event bonus sample164alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 29.9
- Score range
- 259–359
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
508.5Season APEX484
57.8Auto52.9
176.7Teleop164.3
84.3Endgame73.9
51Consistency48
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 75 | 64 |
| teleop | 162 | 120 |
| endgame | 103 | 100 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 340 | 284 |
Result
Final score
340 – 284
Prediction correct · off by 13 pts
Match videos
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