Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

170.04 – 197.46

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 36.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.4 ±11.6

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 56.29Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 67.46Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 46.29Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.7 ±14.7

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 111.71Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 18.29Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9626JagWire Robotics

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 67.46Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5126, 2220, 1847

/ 100 compat

Projected

170 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5126, 2220, 1847

Auto

23.7 14%

Teleop

90.5 53%

Endgame

56.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1986, 5041, 9626

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1986, 5041, 9626

Auto

30.5 15%

Teleop

110.2 56%

Endgame

57.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score170pts

Blue projected score197.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.4
Score range: 137–230
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 184.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.4Season APEX426.7

23.7Auto30.5

90.5Teleop110.2

56.2Endgame57

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	45
teleop	127	119
endgame	82	5
foul	0	15
total	229	184

Result

Final score

229 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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