Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

245.16 – 151.2

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

75 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 123.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269 ±15

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 94.86Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 91.14Rank 39Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 92

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 59.16Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±15

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 32.86Rank 33Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 59.14Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX 59.2Rank 37Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1769, 8112, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1769, 8112, 10435

Auto

39.6 16%

Teleop

144.6 59%

Endgame

59.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10453, 9410, 1994

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10453, 9410, 1994

Auto

18.8 12%

Teleop

85.7 56%

Endgame

49.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score245.2pts

Blue projected score151.2pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94
Score range: 115–281
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 200.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269Season APEX252.4

39.6Auto18.8

144.6Teleop85.7

59.6Endgame49.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	1
teleop	29	42
endgame	21	32
foul	5	0
total	75	75

Result

Final score

75 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 123.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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