Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.85 – 143.56

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 88.1 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.6 ±14.5

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX -Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 57.43Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7102PrepaTec - Daedalus

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX -Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.1 ±11.7

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX -Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX -Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6017PrepaTec - Cyberius

Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 73.14Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 937, 2457, 7102

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 937, 2457, 7102

Auto

30.6 24%

Teleop

70.6 55%

Endgame

26.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10333, 7483, 6017

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 7483, 6017

Auto

32.6 23%

Teleop

74.9 52%

Endgame

36.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.8pts

Blue projected score143.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.7
Score range: 90–182
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 211.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.6Season APEX363.1

9.4Auto11.4

35.4Teleop39.7

12.6Endgame22

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	31
teleop	16	107
endgame	8	62
foul	0	30
total	38	230

Result

Final score

38 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 88.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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