Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.21 – 175.35

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 10.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±13.9

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 3.36Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 94.7Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 69.15Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.8 ±13.5

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 77.13Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7064Voltron Robotics

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 28.94Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 69.28Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1827, 9410, 8880

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1827, 9410, 8880

Auto

17.0 10%

Teleop

93.2 57%

Endgame

52.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4624, 7064, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4624, 7064, 2220

Auto

20.5 11%

Teleop

116.1 64%

Endgame

45.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167.2pts

Blue projected score175.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.1
Score range: 133–209
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 186.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.5Season APEX349.8

17Auto20.5

93.2Teleop116.1

52.4Endgame45.7

58Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	10
teleop	90	88
endgame	47	67
foul	15	5
total	183	170

Result

Final score

183 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 10.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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