Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

253.85 – 106.8

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.6 ±12.2

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 120.96Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 91.72Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 41.17Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.9 ±14.5

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 9.35Rank 39Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 92

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 35.35Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 62.1Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2357, 5013, 9316

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2357, 5013, 9316

Auto

47.7 19%

Teleop

130.7 51%

Endgame

77.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8112, 8825, 1847

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8112, 8825, 1847

Auto

26.2 24%

Teleop

50.2 47%

Endgame

30.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score253.9pts

Blue projected score106.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.1
Score range: 74–287
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 185.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.6Season APEX228.9

47.7Auto26.2

130.7Teleop50.2

77.3Endgame30.9

61Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	26
teleop	203	33
endgame	45	25
foul	15	0
total	316	84

Result

Final score

316 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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