Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.1 – 115.94

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 70.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275 ±15.1

9626JagWire Robotics

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 50.08Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 131.12Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 34.9Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.5 ±13.9

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX 1.87Rank 37Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 29.91Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 84.16Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9626, 1810, 4455

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9626, 1810, 4455

Auto

47.9 23%

Teleop

129.8 62%

Endgame

30.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1994, 935, 2704

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1994, 935, 2704

Auto

13.5 12%

Teleop

58.9 54%

Endgame

35.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score216.1pts

Blue projected score115.9pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.2
Score range: 82–250
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 187.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275Season APEX281.5

47.9Auto13.5

129.8Teleop58.9

30.6Endgame35.9

68Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	18
teleop	35	62
endgame	17	53
foul	0	0
total	93	133

Result

Final score

93 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 70.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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