Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.71 – 165.54

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

257 – 291

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431 ±12.8

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 52.56Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 170.95Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 32.2Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.3 ±15

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 21.84Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 12.12Rank 38Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 131.58Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4959, 1986, 7483

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4959, 1986, 7483

Auto

39.4 16%

Teleop

150.7 61%

Endgame

58.4 24%

Strengths

· 1986 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5041, 11171, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5041, 11171, 10435

Auto

22.9 14%

Teleop

89.4 55%

Endgame

48.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score255.7pts

Blue projected score165.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.2
Score range: 133–289
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 185.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431Season APEX336.3

39.4Auto22.9

150.7Teleop89.4

58.4Endgame48.8

36Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	28
teleop	155	154
endgame	59	109
foul	0	0
total	257	291

Result

Final score

257 – 291

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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