Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.82 – 102.96

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.7 ±12.2

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 90.7Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 77.46Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 7.66Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.2 ±15

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 50.47Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 16.84Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 35.65Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5126, 757, 10333

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5126, 757, 10333

Auto

32.8 19%

Teleop

90.9 52%

Endgame

50.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6843, 1769, 937

/ 100 compat

Projected

103 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6843, 1769, 937

Auto

14.2 13%

Teleop

75.4 71%

Endgame

16.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175.8pts

Blue projected score103pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.9
Score range: 69–210
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.7Season APEX243.2

32.8Auto14.2

90.9Teleop75.4

50.2Endgame16.1

73Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	12
teleop	71	10
endgame	13	6
foul	15	0
total	114	28

Result

Final score

114 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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