Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.21 – 63.5

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.4 ±14.5

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 32.68Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 52.74Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 21.79Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.8 ±15

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 12.24Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 39.94Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 11.32Rank 39Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8825, 4959, 935

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8825, 4959, 935

Auto

19.9 19%

Teleop

57.2 56%

Endgame

25.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1827, 7483, 8112

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1827, 7483, 8112

Auto

2.1 4%

Teleop

24.9 44%

Endgame

29.2 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.2pts

Blue projected score63.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.7
Score range: 30–141
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.4Season APEX204.8

19.9Auto2.1

57.2Teleop24.9

25.3Endgame29.2

40Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	13
teleop	39	5
endgame	68	2
foul	0	5
total	141	25

Result

Final score

141 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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