Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.46 – 133.72

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.1 ±14.5

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 21.81Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 95.38Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 23.27Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263 ±12.7

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 24.53Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 58.83Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8740Prepa Tecmilenio - Quantum Force

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 50.36Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4455, 5013, 1763

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4455, 5013, 1763

Auto

40.6 30%

Teleop

64.3 47%

Endgame

31.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5098, 4959, 8740

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5098, 4959, 8740

Auto

18.6 14%

Teleop

81.2 60%

Endgame

34.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.5pts

Blue projected score133.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.7
Score range: 98–176
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 200.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.1Season APEX263

40.6Auto18.6

64.3Teleop81.2

31.7Endgame34.6

57Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	15
teleop	52	111
endgame	58	16
foul	5	5
total	144	147

Result

Final score

144 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 8.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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