Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.92 – 183.73

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.4 ±13.9

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 132.96Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX 6.23Rank 37Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 63.73Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.8 ±12.2

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 13.14Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 80.05Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 90.54Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10435, 1994, 1847

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10435, 1994, 1847

Auto

20.4 10%

Teleop

122.6 60%

Endgame

59.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10333, 4624, 2704

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10333, 4624, 2704

Auto

26.9 15%

Teleop

100.3 55%

Endgame

54.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score202.9pts

Blue projected score183.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.2
Score range: 150–237
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.4Season APEX353.8

20.4Auto26.9

122.6Teleop100.3

59.7Endgame54.1

67Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	22
teleop	106	80
endgame	74	27
foul	0	0
total	196	129

Result

Final score

196 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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