Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.43 – 398.58

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 453

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303 ±13.9

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 19.82Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 134.36Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 71.25Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 639.6 ±10.5

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 220.13Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 164.8Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 13.65Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1769, 1810, 8880

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1769, 1810, 8880

Auto

47.7 21%

Teleop

141.4 63%

Endgame

36.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1987, 1986, 5098

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1987, 1986, 5098

Auto

78.8 20%

Teleop

235.6 60%

Endgame

80.5 20%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score225.4pts

Blue projected score398.6pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -173.1
Score range: 192–432
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 657 vs event baseline 186.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303Season APEX639.6

47.7Auto78.8

141.4Teleop235.6

36.7Endgame80.5

59Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	121
teleop	121	248
endgame	42	84
foul	0	0
total	204	453

Result

Final score

204 – 453

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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