Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.78 – 183.6

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.9 ±12.8

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 52.72Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6017PrepaTec - Cyberius

Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 144.03Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 74.03Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.2 ±13.3

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 14.02Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 97.69Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 71.89Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4959, 6017, 757

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4959, 6017, 757

Auto

35.3 14%

Teleop

162.1 62%

Endgame

62.5 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2457, 9410, 4624

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2457, 9410, 4624

Auto

32.0 18%

Teleop

96.5 55%

Endgame

45.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score270.8pts

Blue projected score183.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.2
Score range: 151–304
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 185.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.9Season APEX321.2

35.3Auto32

162.1Teleop96.5

62.5Endgame45.4

21Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	34
teleop	181	122
endgame	69	79
foul	5	0
total	304	235

Result

Final score

304 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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