Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.86 – 182.73

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

226 – 246

Prediction missed · off by 73.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.9 ±13.7

10225Prepa Tecmilenio - PYROX

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 56.8Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 232.8Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 20.26Rank 38Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.9 ±13.3

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 64.74Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 29.5Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 88.49Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10225, 1987, 11171

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10225, 1987, 11171

Auto

68.0 22%

Teleop

171.6 55%

Endgame

72.4 23%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 757, 9316, 9410

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 757, 9316, 9410

Auto

17.4 10%

Teleop

96.4 56%

Endgame

58.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score309.9pts

Blue projected score182.7pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.1
Score range: 149–344
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 186.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.9Season APEX335.9

68Auto17.4

171.6Teleop96.4

72.4Endgame58.3

85Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	20
teleop	122	141
endgame	59	80
foul	15	5
total	226	246

Result

Final score

226 – 246

Prediction missed · off by 73.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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