Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

377.91 – 68.34

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.3 ±10.4

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 80.73Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 144.54Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6017PrepaTec - Cyberius

Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 152.64Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.6 ±15

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 31.84Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 26.45Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX 10.05Rank 37Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2220, 2357, 6017

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.9 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2220, 2357, 6017

Auto

47.4 13%

Teleop

230.1 62%

Endgame

95.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4455, 1769, 1994

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4455, 1769, 1994

Auto

21.3 32%

Teleop

25.5 38%

Endgame

20.4 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score377.9pts

Blue projected score68.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 309.6
Score range: 34–412
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 187.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.3Season APEX176.6

47.4Auto21.3

230.1Teleop25.5

95.3Endgame20.4

33Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	13
teleop	166	9
endgame	63	4
foul	0	0
total	281	26

Result

Final score

281 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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