Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.42 – 159.72

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.8 ±12.7

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 130.21Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8740Prepa Tecmilenio - Quantum Force

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 40.97Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 9.24Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.3 ±13.9

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 37.16Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 71.05Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 51.51Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1810, 8740, 2457

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1810, 8740, 2457

Auto

38.1 22%

Teleop

115.4 65%

Endgame

23.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8825, 8880, 6843

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8825, 8880, 6843

Auto

36.2 22%

Teleop

90.5 55%

Endgame

39.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score180.4pts

Blue projected score159.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.7
Score range: 126–214
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.8Season APEX267.3

38.1Auto36.2

115.4Teleop90.5

23.4Endgame39.1

75Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	18
teleop	111	93
endgame	13	34
foul	15	0
total	190	145

Result

Final score

190 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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