Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

215.52 – 235.11

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

261 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.6 ±12.9

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 138.66Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 58.16Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 18.7Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.5 ±15.7

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 143.82Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9626JagWire Robotics

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 33.17Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

10225Prepa Tecmilenio - PYROX

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 58.12Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2357, 1847, 1769

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2357, 1847, 1769

Auto

40.2 18%

Teleop

122.3 56%

Endgame

57.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10435, 9626, 10225

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10435, 9626, 10225

Auto

29.0 13%

Teleop

144.3 63%

Endgame

56.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score215.5pts

Blue projected score235.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.6
Score range: 182–269
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 187.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.6Season APEX331.5

40.2Auto29

122.3Teleop144.3

57.8Endgame56.9

76Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	40
teleop	159	119
endgame	56	47
foul	0	0
total	261	206

Result

Final score

261 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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