Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.78 – 314.4

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±15

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 29Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX -0.7Rank 33Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 35.48Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.8 ±12.8

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 85.82Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 89Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 139.58Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7483, 10453, 8825

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7483, 10453, 8825

Auto

19.7 31%

Teleop

36.3 58%

Endgame

6.6 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2220, 5013, 1810

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.4 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2220, 5013, 1810

Auto

51.4 16%

Teleop

192.4 61%

Endgame

71.4 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.8pts

Blue projected score314.4pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -250.6
Score range: 30–348
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 374 vs event baseline 187.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.8Season APEX446.8

19.7Auto51.4

36.3Teleop192.4

6.6Endgame71.4

73Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	40
teleop	47	157
endgame	39	74
foul	0	0
total	103	271

Result

Final score

103 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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