Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

235.31 – 238.25

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

211 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.9 ±12.8

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 79.25Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 37.92Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 118.14Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427 ±12.2

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 13.19Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 51.88Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 173.18Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4624, 4455, 1625

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4624, 4455, 1625

Auto

52.7 23%

Teleop

115.6 50%

Endgame

62.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2457, 6843, 1986

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2457, 6843, 1986

Auto

48.3 20%

Teleop

154.1 65%

Endgame

34.8 15%

Strengths

· 1986 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score235.3pts

Blue projected score238.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.9
Score range: 201–272
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 186.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.9Season APEX427

52.7Auto48.3

115.6Teleop154.1

62.6Endgame34.8

22Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	43
teleop	135	97
endgame	29	66
foul	0	15
total	211	221

Result

Final score

211 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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