Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.19 – 121.06

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±15.6

10225Prepa Tecmilenio - PYROX

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 51.52Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7102PrepaTec - Daedalus

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 34.55Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 13.12Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.6 ±15.7

9626JagWire Robotics

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 30.81Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7064Voltron Robotics

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 32.01Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 58.24Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10225, 7102, 1769

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10225, 7102, 1769

Auto

21.9 23%

Teleop

56.6 61%

Endgame

14.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9626, 7064, 4959

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9626, 7064, 4959

Auto

19.4 16%

Teleop

69.5 59%

Endgame

29.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.2pts

Blue projected score121.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.9
Score range: 65–155
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 188.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.4Season APEX252.6

21.9Auto19.4

56.6Teleop69.5

14.8Endgame29.5

36Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	6
teleop	66	90
endgame	26	40
foul	0	0
total	116	136

Result

Final score

116 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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