Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.98 – 290.99

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.1 ±15

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 83.45Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 7.09Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 38.44Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.6 ±12.4

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 42.92Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 231.31Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 16.76Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4624, 1827, 5041

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4624, 1827, 5041

Auto

23.3 19%

Teleop

62.1 50%

Endgame

39.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9316, 1987, 1769

/ 100 compat

Projected

291 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9316, 1987, 1769

Auto

59.8 20%

Teleop

165.4 57%

Endgame

66.8 23%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129pts

Blue projected score291pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -162
Score range: 93–327
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 200.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.1Season APEX479.6

23.3Auto59.8

62.1Teleop165.4

39.7Endgame66.8

43Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	46
teleop	21	178
endgame	28	103
foul	0	5
total	64	332

Result

Final score

64 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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