Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

21.61 – 168.57

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.6 ±14.5

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 19.74Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 13.74Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX -11.87Rank 39Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.1 ±13.9

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 71.03Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 66.49Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 31.05Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1763, 5098, 8112

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1763, 5098, 8112

Auto

14.4 76%

Teleop

-4.7 0%

Endgame

9.2 49%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2704, 757, 8825

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2704, 757, 8825

Auto

36.4 22%

Teleop

85.5 51%

Endgame

45.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score21.6pts

Blue projected score168.6pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -147
Score range: -12–203
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 189.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.6Season APEX347.1

14.4Auto36.4

-4.7Teleop85.5

9.2Endgame45.4

99Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	28
teleop	23	139
endgame	16	40
foul	0	0
total	59	207

Result

Final score

59 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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