Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.18 – 165.05

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.9 ±13.9

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 31.23Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX 20.2Rank 37Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

8740Prepa Tecmilenio - Quantum Force

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 37.75Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.4 ±11.6

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 69.29Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 28.05Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 67.71Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7483, 1994, 8740

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7483, 1994, 8740

Auto

-2.0 0%

Teleop

57.2 75%

Endgame

20.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8880, 10333, 1847

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8880, 10333, 1847

Auto

34.9 22%

Teleop

60.7 38%

Endgame

62.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.2pts

Blue projected score165.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.9
Score range: 54–200
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 192.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.9Season APEX262.4

-2Auto34.9

57.2Teleop60.7

20.8Endgame62.9

87Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	22
teleop	45	85
endgame	3	21
foul	0	0
total	53	128

Result

Final score

53 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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