Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

196.57 – 282.73

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 284

Prediction missed · off by 60.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.5 ±13.5

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 77.89Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 3.17Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 115.51Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.8 ±13.5

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 122Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 18.01Rank 38Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 142.72Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9410, 937, 2357

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9410, 937, 2357

Auto

34.9 17%

Teleop

123.6 62%

Endgame

42.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1625, 11171, 1810

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1625, 11171, 1810

Auto

58.8 21%

Teleop

172.4 61%

Endgame

53.6 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score196.6pts

Blue projected score282.7pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.2
Score range: 164–316
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 600 vs event baseline 183.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.5Season APEX448.8

34.9Auto58.8

123.6Teleop172.4

42.2Endgame53.6

13Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	43
teleop	172	168
endgame	102	68
foul	0	5
total	316	284

Result

Final score

316 – 284

Prediction missed · off by 60.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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