Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.25 – 120.99

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.1 ±15

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 2.61Rank 39Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 92

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 15.01Rank 33Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 92.63Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.8 ±14.5

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 59.41Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 10.64Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 50.94Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8112, 10453, 4624

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8112, 10453, 4624

Auto

19.5 18%

Teleop

45.9 42%

Endgame

44.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4959, 5041, 4455

/ 100 compat

Projected

121 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4959, 5041, 4455

Auto

25.7 23%

Teleop

55.4 50%

Endgame

29.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.3pts

Blue projected score121pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.7
Score range: 77–154
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 185.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.1Season APEX251.8

19.5Auto25.7

45.9Teleop55.4

44.5Endgame29.3

60Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	35
teleop	28	48
endgame	15	9
foul	0	0
total	61	92

Result

Final score

61 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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