Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.01 – 234.15

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298 ±13.9

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 67.88Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 11.38Rank 38Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 12.75Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.9 ±12.9

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 72.73Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 10.2Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6017PrepaTec - Cyberius

Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 151.22Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9410, 11171, 5098

/ 100 compat

Projected

92 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9410, 11171, 5098

Auto

21.5 22%

Teleop

63.5 66%

Endgame

11.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1847, 937, 6017

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1847, 937, 6017

Auto

27.4 12%

Teleop

137.8 60%

Endgame

65.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92pts

Blue projected score234.2pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.1
Score range: 58–268
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 188.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298Season APEX391.9

21.5Auto27.4

63.5Teleop137.8

11.5Endgame65.9

63Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	41
teleop	71	125
endgame	50	51
foul	0	0
total	141	217

Result

Final score

141 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 33.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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