Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

181.08 – 192.86

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

197 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 27 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.3 ±14.5

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 9.7Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 136.96Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 34.42Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.7 ±14.5

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 62.03Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 89.52Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10225Prepa Tecmilenio - PYROX

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 41.31Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5041, 1810, 6843

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5041, 1810, 6843

Auto

47.0 26%

Teleop

113.5 62%

Endgame

22.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 757, 4624, 10225

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 757, 4624, 10225

Auto

37.9 20%

Teleop

116.2 62%

Endgame

32.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score181.1pts

Blue projected score192.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.8
Score range: 147–227
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 189.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.3Season APEX339.7

47Auto37.9

113.5Teleop116.2

22.6Endgame32.7

45Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	37
teleop	123	108
endgame	30	81
foul	0	5
total	197	231

Result

Final score

197 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 27 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.