Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.78 – 30.23

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 89.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.7 ±11.6

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 85.73Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 142.22Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 24.83Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±14.5

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 4.52Rank 33Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 52.08Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX -26.37Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8880, 1625, 2457

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.8 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8880, 1625, 2457

Auto

47.2 19%

Teleop

144.2 57%

Endgame

60.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10453, 2704, 1827

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10453, 2704, 1827

Auto

-0.5 0%

Teleop

22.5 72%

Endgame

9.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score252.8pts

Blue projected score30.2pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 222.6
Score range: -4–287
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 186.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.7Season APEX294.5

47.2Auto-0.5

144.2Teleop22.5

60.6Endgame9.3

75Consistency187

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	18
teleop	77	40
endgame	19	52
foul	0	0
total	154	110

Result

Final score

154 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 89.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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