Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232 – 83.06

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.4 ±12.2

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 118.01Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 15.78Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 98.21Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.9 ±12.8

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 29.05Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 21.84Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10333Elevation

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 32.17Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2357, 5098, 4624

/ 100 compat

Projected

232 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2357, 5098, 4624

Auto

45.0 19%

Teleop

157.8 68%

Endgame

30.9 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 935, 6843, 10333

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 935, 6843, 10333

Auto

14.7 19%

Teleop

20.4 27%

Endgame

40.5 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score232pts

Blue projected score83.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148.9
Score range: 49–266
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 188.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.4Season APEX230.9

45Auto14.7

157.8Teleop20.4

30.9Endgame40.5

60Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	31
teleop	103	46
endgame	51	26
foul	0	0
total	212	103

Result

Final score

212 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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