Qualification · Qualification 25
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
233.91 – 385.64
13%87%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
312 – 418
Prediction correct · off by 55.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.2 ±13.6
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 132.27Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 74.97Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 26.67Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.9 ±12.4
Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 126.64Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 53.68Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 205.32Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6017, 5126, 9626
84
/ 100 compatProjected
233.9 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 6017, 5126, 9626
Auto
31.4 14%
Teleop
136.1 60%
Endgame
60.3 26%
Strengths
- · Low variance, consistent output
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1810, 4959, 1987
87
/ 100 compatProjected
385.6 pts
~2.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 1810, 4959, 1987
Auto
67.8 18%
Teleop
238.7 63%
Endgame
73.8 19%
Strengths
- · 1987 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.58
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score233.9pts
Blue projected score385.6pts
Red win probability13%
Event bonus sample164alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 70%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -151.7
- Score range
- 201–419
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
423.2Season APEX571.9
31.4Auto67.8
136.1Teleop238.7
60.3Endgame73.8
260Consistency167
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 36 | 90 |
| teleop | 210 | 228 |
| endgame | 66 | 100 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 312 | 418 |
Result
Final score
312 – 418
Prediction correct · off by 55.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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