Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.32 – 134.84

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.1 ±13.9

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 13.28Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1847WRATH

Season APEX 91.1Event APEX 67.4Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 61.64Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.8 ±14.1

7102PrepaTec - Daedalus

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 27.51Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 143.17Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX -35.84Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5041, 1847, 757

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5041, 1847, 757

Auto

36.7 27%

Teleop

69.5 50%

Endgame

31.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7102, 1625, 1827

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7102, 1625, 1827

Auto

31.4 23%

Teleop

62.1 46%

Endgame

41.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.3pts

Blue projected score134.8pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.5
Score range: 102–175
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 181.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.1Season APEX346.8

36.7Auto31.4

69.5Teleop62.1

31.9Endgame41.1

59Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	14
teleop	94	99
endgame	45	33
foul	5	0
total	171	146

Result

Final score

171 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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