Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.09 – 87.34

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.6 ±15

5013Trobots

Season APEX 137.8Event APEX 76.64Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10225Prepa Tecmilenio - PYROX

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 48.31Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 8.14Rank 33Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±14.5

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 19.5Rank 38Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX 41.7Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX 26.14Rank 37Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5013, 10225, 10453

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5013, 10225, 10453

Auto

26.5 21%

Teleop

66.7 53%

Endgame

33.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11171, 2457, 1994

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11171, 2457, 1994

Auto

8.1 9%

Teleop

50.7 56%

Endgame

31.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.1pts

Blue projected score87.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.8
Score range: 54–166
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 184.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.6Season APEX237.1

26.5Auto8.1

66.7Teleop50.7

33.8Endgame31

82Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	18
teleop	82	16
endgame	26	19
foul	0	0
total	149	53

Result

Final score

149 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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