Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.54 – 209.96

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.2 ±13.4

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 54.88Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8740Prepa Tecmilenio - Quantum Force

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 54.02Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7064Voltron Robotics

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 44.64Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.5 ±12.4

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 151.58Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX -2.98Rank 39Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 92

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 61.36Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2704, 8740, 7064

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2704, 8740, 7064

Auto

24.1 16%

Teleop

88.2 57%

Endgame

41.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1986, 8112, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

210 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1986, 8112, 2220

Auto

28.4 14%

Teleop

136.4 66%

Endgame

41.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.5pts

Blue projected score210pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.4
Score range: 121–243
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 182.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.2Season APEX488.5

24.1Auto28.4

88.2Teleop136.4

41.3Endgame41

99Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	39
teleop	115	173
endgame	41	71
foul	0	5
total	174	288

Result

Final score

174 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 49.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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