Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.09 – 62.82

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406 ±12.8

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 122.42Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 17.3Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4959Staley Robotics

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 46.37Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.7 ±15

1769Digital Hawks

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 31.24Rank 34Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 4.88Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

935RaileRobotics

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 26.7Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1625, 6843, 4959

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1625, 6843, 4959

Auto

27.1 15%

Teleop

97.0 53%

Endgame

59.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1769, 1763, 935

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1769, 1763, 935

Auto

13.9 27%

Teleop

17.0 33%

Endgame

19.9 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score186.1pts

Blue projected score62.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.3
Score range: 30–219
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 183.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406Season APEX160.7

27.1Auto13.9

97Teleop17

59.9Endgame19.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	18
teleop	157	38
endgame	57	23
foul	0	0
total	248	79

Result

Final score

248 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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