Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.14 – 206.76

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.1 ±14.5

6843Guardian Gears

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 40.07Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

757Crazy Train

Season APEX 111.1Event APEX 59.95Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 11.12Rank 33Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.7 ±14.1

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 81.47Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9626JagWire Robotics

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 31.24Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9410PowerHouse

Season APEX 132.7Event APEX 94.05Rank 9Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6843, 757, 10453

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6843, 757, 10453

Auto

14.5 13%

Teleop

65.8 58%

Endgame

32.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2220, 9626, 9410

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2220, 9626, 9410

Auto

21.9 11%

Teleop

121.8 60%

Endgame

58.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.1pts

Blue projected score206.8pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.6
Score range: 75–243
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 200.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.1Season APEX378.7

14.5Auto21.9

65.8Teleop121.8

32.5Endgame58.4

56Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	11
teleop	60	122
endgame	34	74
foul	0	0
total	115	207

Result

Final score

115 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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