Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.57 – 248.65

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.7 ±13.9

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 19.52Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX -14.33Rank 27Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 18.38Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.4 ±14.5

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 145.32Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10225Prepa Tecmilenio - PYROX

Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 60.49Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 42.84Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5098, 1827, 4455

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5098, 1827, 4455

Auto

5.8 28%

Teleop

-6.9 0%

Endgame

21.8 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1810, 10225, 7483

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.7 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1810, 10225, 7483

Auto

38.9 17%

Teleop

159.5 68%

Endgame

35.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score23.6pts

Blue projected score248.7pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -225.1
Score range: -9–282
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 184.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.7Season APEX324.4

5.8Auto38.9

-6.9Teleop159.5

21.8Endgame35.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	47
teleop	5	124
endgame	14	19
foul	0	15
total	45	205

Result

Final score

45 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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