Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.22 – 117.82

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 69.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.8 ±14.7

1994Quixote

Season APEX 59Event APEX 36.19Rank 37Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

9626JagWire Robotics

Season APEX 79.1Event APEX 49.68Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2357System Meltdown

Season APEX 196.7Event APEX 131.35Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321 ±13.9

937Nerd Herd

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX -24.72Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 74.46Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5126Electromagnetic Panthers (EMP)

Season APEX 124.4Event APEX 68.08Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1994, 9626, 2357

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1994, 9626, 2357

Auto

47.1 22%

Teleop

126.6 59%

Endgame

41.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 937, 4624, 5126

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 937, 4624, 5126

Auto

21.5 17%

Teleop

55.8 44%

Endgame

48.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score217.2pts

Blue projected score117.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.4
Score range: 85–250
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 183.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.8Season APEX321

47.1Auto21.5

126.6Teleop55.8

41.1Endgame48.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	30
teleop	107	152
endgame	59	51
foul	0	0
total	193	233

Result

Final score

193 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 69.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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